(Any opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official positions of or endorsements by DFNYC or its members.)

Right now, Democrats need to pick up two one two state Senate seats (the numbers keep changing) to gain a majority. There are three state Senate seats to watch:

3rd SD - Caesar Trunzo: Trunzo has been in office a VERY long time. He spends little time in the district, preferring the weather in Florida. In 2004, Jimmy Dahroug ran with little money and little name recognition, and got just over 40% of the vote. In 2006, he had to fend off two primary challengers (one supported by the state party committee and lots of money), won the primary, and got nearly 45% of the vote inthe general election. This year, Dahroug is running again. His fundraising is up, and there is an excellent chance that he will have a clear shot at Trunzo. He may even have state party support. Jimmy Dahroug has been a DFNYC favorite for a long time, and has been endorsed by DFNYC in this race.

UPDATE 2/20/08: Sources say Republican-turned-Democrat Christopher Bodkin will announce shortly that he's running, and it appears that the state senate committee is backing Bodkin; stay tuned for further developments. 

UPDATE 3/18/08: Suffolk County Democratic Chair Ivan Young confirmed in an e-mail that Chris Bodkin WILL NOT be running for SD-3 this year, so it's Dahroug vs. Trunzo!

15th SD - Serphin Maltese:This district in central and southern Queens has been trending Democratic lately and has aDemocratic majority enrollment. In 2006, Albert Baldeo came out of nowhere to take 48.7%of the vote, mostly because nobody, including Maltese, took him seriously.Baldeo is running again, and will challenge City Council member Joseph Addabbo, Jr.in a Democratic primary. Addabbo has the support of the Queens machine, as well as many others.This race could hinge on how nasty Baldeo gets. In 2005, while running for City Council,Baldeo got into a very messy situation with another candidate, Randy Mahadeo. Already, hisrhetoric is showing signs of a heavily negative, anti-Addabbo campaign. Additionally, Baldeohas stated that he will run in the general election on a third-party line if he loses theDemocratic primary.

11th SD - Frank Padavan:For years, Padavan has been considered unbeatable. In 2006, Democrats ran Nora Marino,who got 40% of the vote. The district is mostly Democratic, but Padavan has done anexcellent job of constituent services, and is very well liked in the district.City Council member James Gennaro is running this year, and has gotten off to an excellentstart, raising nearly a quarter of a million dollars in just a few months. As of mid-January, hehas $251,000 on hand, compared to only $115,000 for Padavan. Gennaro also has the supportof the state party.

48th SD - Special Election: There is a special election coming up on Feb. 26 for the state Senate. Republican Jim Wright retired at the end of 2007 to take a job with a lobbying firm. The district is in northern New York. Two Assembly members are vying to replace him,Republican Bob Barclay and Democrat Darrel Aubertine. Even though the district is heavily Republican, Aubertine has a real chance to win. He represents an Assembly district that is right in the middle of the Senate district, and is just as heavily Republican. Barclay's district is only about half in and half out of the Senate district.

UPDATE 2/27/2008: Darrel Aubertine wins 27,907 to 25,345 (52% to 48% - unofficialtally), bringing Democrats within one seat of controlling the State Senate and clearing out the constipation that is Albany politics. This seat and Andrea Stewart-Cousins (Westchester SD-35) will be fiercely challenged bythe Republicans in November, so SD-35 and SD-48 are still districts to keep an eye onin the coming months. Special thanks to DFNYC'ers Costa Constantinides, Steve Behar and Steven Beard, who spent significant time in the North Country helping the Aubertine campaign.

For the U.S. House of Representatives, there are five NY races to keep an eye on:

13th CD - Vito Fossella: The district covers all of Staten Island and part of southwest Brooklyn.Vito Fossella is the only Republican House member in NYC. Two Democrats are vying tochallenge him. Steve Harrisonran in 2006 with little preparation time and less money (he had to wait untilCity Council Member Bill de Blasio decided whether to run). Despite the late start, Harrisonreceived 43% of the vote. He is running again, and has raised about $110,000 to date. Stevealso has the backing of several grass roots groups, and gets most of his funding from inside thedistrict. City Council Member Domenic Recchia is also planning to run. He is term-limited, andlooking for his next job. He has the backing of the Brooklyn machine and a lot of access tomoney. He claims to have raised over $200,000, although records don't seem to show that.

19th CD - John Hall: This district covers parts of Westchester, Orange, Rockland, Putnam and Duchess counties.In 2006 Democrat John Hallsurprised a lot of people by unseating Sue Kelly. She had fourtimes the money, and was the incumbent, but Hall defeated several primary challengers andthen won a narrow victory. Despite repeated rumors of a self-funded Republican challenger to Hall, nobody has actually materialized. Stay tuned for further developments.

20th CD - Kirsten Gillibrand:This district covers a long stretch of eastern New York, from Duchess to Essex counties, andswings in just south of Albany into Delaware county. In 2006 Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand defeated John Sweeney in a heavily Republican-favoreddistrict. Her voting record in the House has been fairly conservative (for a Democrat), partiallybecause Republicans have enlisted Alexander Treadwell to self-finance a challenge this year.The up side to his self-financing is that she has not only raised a lot of money (more than justabout any other freshman House member), but can go back to her large donors. Since she has aself-funded challenger, her donors can give more than the standard limit.

25th CD - Open:This district covers parts of four counties in northern New York.Republican Jim Walsh is retiring. 2006 Democratic nominee Dan Maffei, who got 49% of the vote, is running against an unknown Republican.

29th CD - John R. (Randy) Kuhl:This district covers eight counties in southwest New York.Kuhl is a two-term Republican with a reputation for being a nutcase. In 2006 he waschallenged by retired Navy veteran Eric Massa. Massa nearly won, getting almost 49% of thevote.Eric Massa is back,raising more money and working to build on the foundation he created the last time.